Impact of Climate on Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Lahore: A Predictive Model

COVID-19: A Predictive Model

Authors

  • Farkhanda Manzoor Department of Zoology, Lahore College for Women University, Lahore, Pakistan
  • Saima Sharif Department of Zoology, Lahore College for Women University, Lahore, Pakistan

Keywords:

COVID-19, climate, climate factors, stepwise linear regression, Lahore

Abstract

World over, the weather conditions are usually categorized as predictors of respiratory viral infections. This study uses a stepwise linear regression model to explore the effects of climate factors or weather factors such as temperature, humidity, wind speed on the spread of COVID-19 in Lahore city (Pakistan). The study was conducted in Lahore College for Women University, Lahore, and the data regarding the cases of COVID-19 in the Lahore district was obtained from the Primary and Secondary Health Care Department Punjab, from 18th March 2020 to 25th August 2020 while the weather statistics were obtained from Environmental Protection Department, Lahore. A predictive model by regression was designed in which day-to-day humidity, wind speed, average temperature, and their impact on confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Lahore were analyzed. The independent variables in the model were average temperature (C), humidity (%), wind (km/h) and the dependent variable was the number of daily established cases of COVID in Lahore. The result of the analysis shows the effectiveness of the proposed model and the impact of climate parameters on the assessment model. The study illustrates that the above model can be used to predict the future spread
of COVID-19 based on the above-mentioned climate factors. As such, it proves as a useful modality to predict new cases for the government and other health agencies.

References

G. L. Rosa, L. Bonadonna, L. Lucentini, S. Kenmoe, and E. Suffredini. “Coronavirus in water environments: Occurrence, persistence and

concentration methods-A scoping review.” Water research :115899 (2020).

Q. Li, X Guan., P. Wu., X. Wang., L. Zhou., Y. Tong, Ruiqi Ren et al. “Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia.” New England journal of medicine (2020).

S. K. Pani., N. H. Lin, and S. RavindraBabu. “Association of COVID-19 pandemic with meteorological parameters over Singapore.” Science of the Total Environment. 740: 140112 (2020).

P. K. Sahoo., S. Mangla., A. K. Pathak., G. N. Salãmao, and D. Sarkar. “Pre-to-post lockdown impact on air quality and the role of environmental factors in spreading the COVID-19 cases-a study from a worst-hit state of India.” International journal of biometeorology: 1-18 (2020).

S. Hamidi., S. Sabouri, and R. Ewing. “Does density aggravate the COVID-19 pandemic? Early findings and lessons for planners.” Journal of the American Planning Association 86, no. 4 :495-509 (2020).

P. Mecenas., R. T. d. R. M. Bastos., A. C. R. Vallinoto, and D. Normando. “Effects of temperature and humidity on the spread of COVID-19: A systematic review.” PLoS one 15, no. 9 : e0238339 (2020).

Y. Ma., Y. Zhao., J. Liu., X. He., B. Wang., S. Fu., J. Yan., J. Niu., J. Zhou, and B. Luo. “Effects of temperature variation and humidity on the death of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China.” Science of the total environment 724 : 138226 (2020).

J. Wang., K. Tang., K. Feng, and W. Lv. “High temperature and high humidity reduce the transmission of COVID-19.” Available at SSRN

(2020).

Y. Wu., W. Jing., J. Liu., Q. Ma., J. Yuan., Y. Wang., M. Du, and M. Liu. “Effects of temperature and humidity on the daily new cases and new deaths of COVID-19 in 166 countries.” Science of the Total Environment 729 :139051 (2020).

M. M. Sajadi., P. Habibzadeh., A. Vintzileos., S. Shokouhi., F. Miralles-Wilhelm, and A. Amoroso. “Temperature, humidity, and latitude analysis to estimate potential spread and seasonality of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).” JAMA network open 3, no. 6: e2011834-e2011834 (2020).

P. Mecenas, R. T. D. R. M. Bastos, A. C. R. Vallinoto, and D. Normando. Effects of temperature and humidity on the spread of COVID-19. A systematic review. PLoS one 15: e0238339 (2020).

K. Wang, and Z. Chen. Stepwise Regression and All Possible Subsets Regression in Education. Electronic International Journal of Education, Arts and Science 2: 60-81 (2016).

Y. Kim. Toward a successful CRM: variable selection, sampling, and ensemble. Decision Support Systems, 41 (2), 542-553, (2006).

A. Rouen., J. Adda, O. Roy, E. Rogers, and P. Lévy. COVID-19: relationship between atmospheric temperature and daily new cases growth rate. Epidemiology & Infection :148 (2020).

E. A. Rasheed, S. Kodera, J. Gomez-Tames, and A. Hirata. Influence of Absolute Humidity, Temperature and Population Density on COVID-19 Spread and Decay Durations: Multi-Prefecture Study in Japan. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 17, 5354. (2020).

R. Basray, A. Malik, W. Waqar, A. Chaudhry, M. W. Malik, M. A. Khan, J. A. Ansari, and A. Ikram. Impact of environmental factors on COVID-19 cases and mortalities in major cities of Pakistan. Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity 3: 10-16 (2021).

K. H. Chan., J.S. M. Peiris., S. Y. Lam., L. L. M. Poon., K. Y. Yuen, and W. H. Seto. “The effects of temperature and relative humidity on the viability of the SARS coronavirus.” Advances in virology 2011 (2011).

L. Hu, W. J. Deng, G. G. Ying, and H. Hong. Environmental perspective of COVID-19: atmospheric and wastewater environment in relation to pandemic. Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety : 112297 (2021).

M. R. M. Daneshvar, M. Ebrahimi, A. Sadeghi, and A. Mahmoudzadeh. Climate effects on the COVID-19 outbreak: a comparative analysis between the UAE and Switzerland. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment: 1-14 (2021).

M. M. Iqbal, I. Abid, S. Hussain, N. Shahzad, M. S. Waqas, and M. J. Iqbal. The effects of regional climatic condition on the spread of COVID-19 at global scale. Science of the Total Environment 739: 140101 (2020).

T. Jamil., I. Alam., T. Gojobori, and C. M. Duarte. “No evidence for temperature-dependence of the COVID-19 epidemic.” Frontiers in public health 8 : 436 (2020).

G. Kroumpouzos., M. Gupta., M. Jafferany., T. Lotti., R. Sadoughifar., Z. Sitkowska, and M. Goldust. “COVID‐19: A relationship to climate and environmental conditions?” Dermatologic therapy (2020).

Downloads

Published

2021-08-10

How to Cite

Manzoor, F., & Sharif, S. . (2021). Impact of Climate on Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Lahore: A Predictive Model: COVID-19: A Predictive Model. Proceedings of the Pakistan Academy of Sciences: B. Life and Environmental Sciences, 58(S), 37–43. Retrieved from https://ppaspk.org/index.php/PPAS-B/article/view/468