Hydro-Climatic Variability and Drought Patterns in the Thal Desert, Pakistan: An Integrated Drought Assessment
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53560/PPASB(63-3)1142Keywords:
Thal Desert, Drought Assessment, SPI-12, Groundwater, Rainfall Variability, Temperature Variability, GIS, Composite Drought IndexAbstract
Drought is a major hydro-climatic hazard in arid and semi-arid regions. In the Thal Desert of Punjab, Pakistan, limited rainfall, high temperature, and dependence on groundwater can increase drought vulnerability. This study assessed drought patterns in the region by integrating rainfall, temperature, groundwater conditions, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-12) using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques from 1995 to 2024. Rainfall and temperature data from six PMD stations were analyzed, while groundwater records from 79 monitoring stations were examined for pre- and post-monsoon periods from 2003 to 2019. Spatial patterns were assessed using inverse distance weighting (IDW), whereas long-term trends were evaluated using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. A Composite Drought Index (CDI) was developed and standardized on a 1.0 - 1.5 scale and weighed using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) values. Mean annual rainfall ranged from 465 to 517 mm and showed weak decreasing trends at all six stations, although none of the trends was statistically significant. Temperature trends varied across the study area, with both increasing and decreasing patterns observed. Mean groundwater depth ranged from 2.55 - 21.79 m during the pre-monsoon period and 3.05 - 21.59 m during the post-monsoon period, with no significant long-term trends at most monitoring stations. The CDI classified the study area into five drought hazard classes rather than independently validated risk categories. High and moderate hazard classes covered 34.6% and 26.6% of the study area, respectively. The findings highlight the spatial variability of drought hazard and the importance of integrating climatic and groundwater indicators for regional drought assessment.
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