Emergence and Subsiding of the First-wave COVID-19 Pandemic in Pakistan (2020): An Eigenvalue Analysis Based on Synergetics
First-wave COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan
Keywords:
COVID-19, eigenvalues, synergeticsAbstract
By November 15, 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has claimed worldwide 1,300,000 lives. Despite this tragic death toll, several countries managed to make at least their first-waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in their countries to subside to relatively low levels. Pakistan is one of those countries. An analysis of the beginning, middle stage, and ending of the pandemic in Pakistan are presented by combining standard epidemiological modeling and an eigenvalue analysis as used in synergetics. The decay of the effective contact rate throughout the three stages presumably due to intervention measures is demonstrated. Importantly, the sign-switching of the dominant eigenvalue from the beginning to the ending stage is shown that suggests that at least in August and September 2020 the diseasefree state (i.e., state free of COVID-19) was stabilized.
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